The Math Isn’t Mathing in the Senate

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Donald Trump is going to war — and no, I’m not talking about Iran. The Senate is currently locked in a brutal brawl over the SAVE America Act, a controversial (and massive) bill that would overhaul the way America conducts its elections. Trump has made clear that he expects his Senate GOP colleagues to do whatever it takes to get the bill to his desk before this year’s midterm elections, including nuking the filibuster. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is a man without any good options. It takes 60 votes to pass a bill under current Senate rules, but Democrats have already pledged to block the bill through every legislative means available to them. Republicans also currently lack the votes to kill the filibuster. GOP lawmakers have also rejected what’s called a “talking filibuster” that would’ve ground the Senate to a halt for weeks or even months. Thune is stuck with a bill that is too important to abandon and too unpopular to pass. So…what now? 

This week we’re taking a deep dive into the SAVE America Act: what it does, how Republicans are trying to pass it, and why Trump thinks it could be the most important legislation of his presidency. Buckle up.

— Max Burns

At its core, the SAVE America Act is an effort to turn Republicans’ delusions about voter fraud into law. Under the bill, prospective voters would need a federally-issued ID card in order to register to vote. They would also need to present a valid ID in order to vote. Voting by mail would be sharply restricted and require voters to mail a copy of their ID along with their ballot. The bill would also make it significantly harder for third party groups to register voters in the first place.

Ironically, raising ID requirements would disproportionately hurt voter groups that supported Trump in 2024, most notably younger men in red states. 11% of men report they lack easy access to the kinds of proof of citizenship documents required for a federal ID. That’s especially true in Texas, where Republicans were twice as likely as Democrats to lack access to citizenship documents. Whoops! 

Those efforts are concerning enough to Democrats, who see them as little more than voter suppression. Worse still are the provisions which require states to submit their full voter rolls to the Department of Homeland Security, ostensibly so the feds can strike out any undocumented immigrants wrongfully added to the voter rolls. Except that isn’t an actual problem that exists, and current laws already ban noncitizens from voting. In addition, states would be required to conduct extensive purges of their voter rolls, a process that often ends up removing lawfully-registered voters.

But as with all things Trump, the SAVE America Act quickly swelled beyond just voter suppression. Trump has previously demanded that senators include a section banning gender-affirming medical care for transgender children and restricting the participation of transgender athletes in sports. Those demands add a new dynamic to an already heated debate, with some Republicans concerned that it risks derailing the entire effort.

Trump is clear-eyed about the fact that Republicans likely face an electoral wipeout in November if they can’t tighten voting requirements ahead of the midterms. In a post to Truth Social, he encouraged Republicans to pass the SAVE America Act “[W]ith PASSION, and at the expense of everything else.” In another post, Trump promised that the SAVE America Act would “guarantee the midterms” for embattled Republicans facing tough re-election races. He’s also pledged to campaign against any Republican who opposes the bill.

Majority Leader Thune brought the SAVE America Act to the floor on Tuesday with a bare-majority vote in which Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski joined Democrats in opposing. But that doesn’t change the stark math facing Thune’s caucus. Unless they are willing to go nuclear and risk splitting their own party, Republicans need 60 votes to send the bill to Trump’s desk. They are nowhere close.

“The votes aren’t there, one, to nuke the filibuster and the votes aren’t there for a talking filibuster. It’s just a reality,” Thune told reporters last week. “I’m the person who has to deliver sometimes the not-so-good news that the math doesn’t add up, but those are the facts and there’s no getting around it.”

Thune has good reason to avoid the traditional talking filibuster, too. By forcing Democrats to hold the floor, Thune would grind the Senate to a halt for what would likely be a months-long opposition campaign. The rules of the talking filibuster would also allow Democrats to introduce an unlimited number of amendments regardless of their connection to the bill, meaning Republicans would likely be forced into taking tough votes about extending the Affordable Care Act subsidies, ending the war in Iran, and addressing the rising cost of living. Thune is keen to avoid those highly public embarrassments, especially if the end result is going to be a loss anyway.

Still, electoral realities have had an effect on some Republican senators who once stridently opposed changing the filibuster rules. Texas Sen. John Cornyn came out in favor of ending the filibuster in an effort to win Trump’s endorsement in his highly contested primary, but backed off the idea in recent days. Cornyn’s flip-flop is a self-inflicted humiliation that now looks like a shameful end to a long public career.

Trump is asking Thune and Senate Republicans to do the impossible, and he doesn’t care if they bend or break the rules to get there. It doesn’t seem to be working. Without a major shift in the status quo, it’s unlikely the SAVE America Act will pass. That will send Trump into a rage and send his already tense relationship with Congress into a deep freeze. 

Even with Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’, the SAVE America Act seems doomed. If that’s true, expect to see Trump turning his fire on Republicans just as the midterm campaign season heats up. Forced to choose between their own jobs and loyalty to Trump, it’s an open question which way GOP lawmakers will go. It’s shaping up to be a real weird summer.